Repair prices are up 60% since 2019, and late car payments hit a record in early 2026
The report pulls public government data and public-company filings into eight interactive charts, each with its source and date. Enter your email to read it.
- Repair prices have outrun repair pay every month since January 2025
- 5.6% of auto-loan dollars were 90 or more days late in the first quarter of 2026
- Vehicles per auto service business range from 1,089 to 2,017 across the 50 states
- Median technician pay runs from $22.54 to $36.55 an hour across the 25 largest metros
- Driver-assist complaints come more than 20,000 miles earlier than complaints about any other system
Repair prices are up 60% since 2019, pay in auto repair is up 40%, and late car payments hit a record in early 2026
What public data says about pricing, hiring, declined work and whether your next store has room to win. Built for independent shop owners and multi-shop operators, with every chart sourced and dated. Pick your state to see your market.
Repair prices have grown faster than repair pay since 2022
Through 2021, pay in auto repair kept pace with what shops charge. In 2022 and 2023, prices rose much faster, and the gap has stayed open. For a shop owner, that gap is a warning.
Repair and maintenance prices are up 60% since January 2019, by the government's consumer price index.
Average hourly pay in auto repair is up 40%, from $21.76 to $30.52. The shaded area is the gap.
Overall inflation is up 33%. Parts prices are up 30%. Most of the gap doesn't land as profit, because insurance, rent, utilities and comebacks take their share first.
Prices minus pay, month by month: before 2020, pay usually grew faster. In January 2023, prices led by 9.6 points.
Prices have grown faster than pay in every monthly reading since January 2025. In August, repair prices were up 5.2% from a year earlier. Pay was up 2.8%. Your techs read the same headlines your customers do.
Auto repair employment peaked at 1,042,800 in February and has slipped since. When the pool stops growing, your best tech is one phone call from the dealer down the road.
Late car payments reached their highest level since at least 2003
The share of auto-loan dollars 90 or more days late hit 5.6% in the first quarter of 2026, above the peak after the 2008 crash. It eased to 5.49% in the second quarter. A customer who is behind on the car payment is the one most likely to decline the brake job.
Miles driven hit a record in July even as gas prices climbed
High gas prices usually cut discretionary miles, and that hasn't happened this year. Americans drove 3.34 trillion miles in the 12 months through August, a record, while regular gas reached $4.35 a gallon in early October, up 42% from a year earlier.
Vehicles per auto service business range from 1,089 to 2,017 by state
Nationally there are about 1,470 household vehicles for every automotive service business (repair, body, glass, lube and car wash). Tennessee has more than 2,000. New Hampshire and New York have fewer than 1,100. Pick a state to see its business count, mix and loan stress.
Engines and electrical systems draw the most owner complaints, and driver-assist complaints come earliest
The average light vehicle on U.S. roads is 12.8 years old, according to S&P Global Mobility. That number alone won't change your week. It gets useful when you tie it to what breaks on those cars, and at what mileage.
Owner complaints to NHTSA show the pattern. Engines, electrical systems and powertrains make up 45% of complaints, and the typical complaint comes between 70,000 and 81,000 miles. That should shape your inspection script and your parts stocking.
Forward collision avoidance stands out. Those complaints come at a typical 37,000 miles, more than 20,000 miles earlier than anything else on the list. Most of those cars are new enough to go back to the dealer today. As they age out of warranty, that calibration work comes to shops equipped for it.
Median technician pay ranges from $22.54 to $36.55 an hour across the 25 largest metros
Inside a single metro, a tech at the 75th percentile earns $11 to $19 an hour more than one at the 25th. San Antonio has the lowest median of the 25 metros and San Francisco the highest.
Operating margins at public auto service chains range from 1.7% to 22.8%
Three public chains sell to the same drivers in the same economy. Their results have split.
Valvoline runs a narrow menu of fast, simple service and earns a 22.8% operating margin. Driven Brands earns 12.4%. Monro, a full-service chain, fell from 12.8% in fiscal 2016 to 1.7% in fiscal 2026, and its revenue has dropped four years running.
Part of that gap is franchise royalties, which carry higher margins than running bays. Treat these numbers as context, not a benchmark for your shop.
This is a national and state picture. Public data can't show how much of your trade area's work your stores get.
Repair prices have outrun repair pay every month since January 2025
Customers are stretched. Before raising your effective labor rate in January, compare approval rates by store, not only ARO.
Late auto-loan balances hit 5.6% in the first quarter of 2026
Follow up on declined safety and maintenance work on a fixed schedule, and decide whether counter financing belongs in your process.
Tech pay at the 75th percentile runs $11 to $19 an hour above the 25th
Check your B-tech pay against the local median and the 75th percentile before choosing between a sign-on bonus and a raise for everyone.
Vehicles per auto service business vary almost 2x from state to state
The spread is wider across ZIP codes. Check whether a weak store sits in a crowded trade area before you buy another one.
The full report, including a 50-state table, is also available as a PDF.
Download the PDFVehicles per auto service business and late auto loans by state
All figures come from public government data and public-company filings
Cardinal Element pulled and joined them. No client data is used.
- Prices and pay
- BLS Consumer Price Index (not seasonally adjusted): motor vehicle maintenance and repair, parts and equipment, all items. BLS Current Employment Statistics for NAICS 8111: all-employee average hourly earnings and employment. Hourly earnings cover everyone in the industry, not only technicians.
- Technician wages by metro
- BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025, SOC 49-3023.
- Driving and fuel
- FHWA vehicle miles traveled and EIA regular gasoline prices, via FRED.
- Household credit
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York Household Debt and Credit Report, Q2 2026; state auto delinquency, Q4 each year through 2025.
- Shops and vehicles
- Census County Business Patterns 2023 by ZIP code, joined to American Community Survey 5-year household vehicle counts. Business counts cover all of NAICS 8111, which includes car washes, glass and lube shops as well as general repair and body shops. Vehicle counts are household vehicles only, not fleets.
- Failures
- NHTSA owner complaints received in 2025 and 2026. Complaints are owner reports, not verified defects, and skew toward newer vehicles and safety systems.
- Fleet age
- S&P Global Mobility, vehicles in operation as of Jan. 1, 2025 (published May 2025).
- Public chains
- SEC EDGAR 10-K XBRL financials for Monro (MNRO), Driven Brands (DRVN) and Valvoline (VVV).